While there have historically been longstanding tensions between China and Taiwan over disputed sovereignty, a recent increase in drills and patrols around Taiwan Strait points to a possible ramping up of military preparedness, indicating full-blown conflict may not be too distant a possibility.

The numbers are clear: as The Guardian reported, the number of Chinese drills in the waters surrounding Taiwan in the year 2021 counted around 1,000. Throughout 2023, there were some 1,700 such patrols, and in 2024 the count was over 3,000. Taiwanese drills have also begun to ramp up; this year they held their largest ever war games, which will last multiple days and have a focus on “testing how Taiwan’s military can decentralize command in the event of a crippling communications attack,” as Reuters reported. These clearly aren’t lighthearted war “games” so much as serious and highly realistic simulations and preparation for a large fight.

So what does this clear increase in military preparedness mean? Well, that would be a question to address to the governments of Taiwan and China. This correspondent had little hope of eliciting a response, so they did not reach out to the governments for any comment; their stances can be made clear through public communications, however. Ever since 1949, when separatists from the fledgling government forming on mainland China decided to retreat to Formosa (the island on which Taiwan is situated), neither has recognized the sovereignty of the other, and military tensions have been present almost from the get-go. Leadership in China today still maintains that Taiwan is under their sovereignty, and have committed to use almost any means to recover that control. Taiwanese leaders have been just as adamant that they are in fact independent, and seem as committed to that stand as those on the mainland.

So will all this tension come to a head with actual violence? It’s not at all guaranteed. While both parties are prepared for that contingency, many others are working hard to find a different solution. And even if it comes to military conflict, some suggest it may come more in the form of “grey zone warfare,” or some sort of blockade, instead of all out warfare (The Guardian). No matter what, the situation is one to keep a close eye on in the coming years, for anything could still happen.